Our roadtrip continues. I am blogging from the Dickenson ND Public Library.
We left our Best Western in WY this morning and drove North through SD, just bypassing the Black Hills area and then decided to stop at Dickenson to look at the weather data. I think there is a chance for thunderstorm development and I am going to propose to Kevin that we head East to Bismarck, and then North. The weather at present is gorgeous. We have armies of marching cumulus clouds. I am a little concerned about thunderstorm initiation. We are a long way from home, and I keep having a feeling that we are not going to be properly positioned.
Satellite photo’s are not entirely promising – they seem to indicate activity to the WEst in Montana, and north into Canada.
Here is what the SPC synopsis says…
…NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT…
WV IMAGERY INDICATED A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER NWRN ND AND A
SECOND SLIGHTLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER ERN ID/SWRN
MT. THE LATTER TROUGH WILL TRACK NEWD ACROSS MT THIS EVENING AND
INTO SRN CANADA BY 12Z SUNDAY PROVIDING ASCENT FOR POTENTIAL STORMS
ACROSS SRN-ERN MT INTO THE EVENING. AT THE SURFACE…A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NERN-CENTRAL MANITOBA SWWD INTO FAR NWRN ND TO THE
VICINITY OF THE MT/WY BORDER. STRONG SURFACE HEATING S OF THIS
BOUNDARY AND WITHIN MOIST AXIS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE UP TO 2500 J/KG OVER
CENTRAL DAKOTAS/.
CLOUD STRUCTURE /BILLOWS/ ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SUGGESTED THE AIR
MASS REMAINS CAPPED ALONG/S OF THE COLD FRONT. GREATER VERTICAL
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS OBSERVED NORTH OF THE BORDER ALONG THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS SERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO CENTRAL/NERN MANITOBA WHERE AIR
PARCELS WERE REACHING THE LFC. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING/
DESTABILIZATION INTO ND LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD AID IN SURFACE
BASED STORMS PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WITH
THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETERS FAVORABLE FOR
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ALONG/N OF COLD FRONT AS THIS
BOUNDARY MOVES SE INTO CENTRAL ND. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED
BY INCREASING ASCENT ACROSS THIS REGION PER ID SHORT WAVE TROUGH
GLANCING ND OVERNIGHT AND WAA ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING PLAINS SLY
LLJ. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL GIVEN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.
The Mesoscale discussion can be located here.
This is the first time I have been to ND – and it is just beautiful. Gorgeous farms, rolling green hills, and very contented looking livestock.
The town of Dickenson is large-ish, and pretty. We are now heading out of here after a quick restroom stop.
